Scouting the Rookies

By Alvin Leadbetter and Jeff Bryk

It's very easy in some leagues to scout by just looking at the numbers. But in the NPL, with a blind draft system, scouting the rookies takes on a whole new meaning. The first thing to remember is that the scouts are not perfect; they can and do make mistakes. So do scouts in the real world. Some players are obvious, they are just so good there is no way to miss them, or is there?

While I don't think there is any perfect system for scouting the rookies, there are some imperfect systems. Using only the overall average of the scouts is not a good method. While sometimes you'll do well with this method, it takes more than that to be sure. Weigh all the factors, find the players weaknesses, find their strengths, and check those college stats. One of the first things I look at on the scouts for a player is what the scout says about him: "He is so slow they timed him with a minute hand" tells me this guy ain't winning any sprints. "He can lift an OX" tells me he is darn strong for his position. After that I can check out the individual scouts' reactions, see if I find a trend. And last--never to be overlooked--are the actual stats this guy put up! When all that is done it is time to invite some players to individual workouts and find out if my time was worth messing with these guys!


Take these four guys:

I know when I look at a LB, I want one with the speed to get to the ball, with a quick burst for blitzing, and enough strength to do the tackling necessary for the job. Having one smart enough to read is a plus, and endurance is necessary for anything more than a spot player.So I begin my initial search. Based on overall value the players are ranked as above. First I'll look at how the scouts see these guys with the averages (sayings) in the areas most important to me. Tackling is a measure of AG, ST, and HA. DI to be in the right position could also be considered, but not used here. Athleticism is a measure of AC/AG/HA, mental is INT and DI.

Out of the 4 most important areas 1 player got high marks in 3 areas, 2 got high marks in one area and Martin got no high marks at all. Initially it looks like Alexander has the edge of these 4 players, but Howfield is certainly close behind and only his low score in endurance is really holding him back. Now I want to look at some of the actual scout scores. Looking at Howfield first I see scout two really raves about his SP/AC/AG but was unimpressed with his ST and EN. Martin's speed and acceleration ability are a definite question mark, and in the SP/AC/AG categories he got only 1 excellent, also given by the giddy scout 2. He fares a little better than Howfield on ST and EN.  Alexander also got one excellent in the SP/AC/AG and it came from scout 2--perhaps scout two is a little lenient on LBs. With 1 good in ST and several excellents in EN, this guy can stay on the field quite a bit. Our last guy, Mcdonald, grabs one excellent in sp, (scout 2 again) but performs poorly in AC/AG. He manages to come out of ST and EN okay. I could go back and look at low scores now, but you should get the gist of how I do it by now. For the last area I want to look at stats.

Stat-wise Howfield seems to be the clear winner, however he does not appear to be a great playmaker. Alexander intrigues me as to why his totals were so low for this season, so I did some checking and for 3 seasons he was consistently in the 30+ tackle range. Maybe he is injury prone? I finally come down to the agonizing decision, who to take. Mcdonald has a good total in SP and ST, always a good sign, and has made plays in college. Alexander has good speed and great endurance, but never put up the numbers I'd like to see. Howfield has the favor of the scouts. I decide to take one last look at previous years on Mcdonald and don't like what I see for his production and decide Mister Steady with the great EN is my man! So I put Alexander up on the list over the other two. BTW Jeff likes McDonald.

Here's a quick look at my rationale for preferring McDonald in this instance. First off, these guys aren't top LBs. They aren't difference makers. I like to get difference-makers when I can, though the mid- to late-round picks are obviously not great times to do so. Alexander may be Mr. Steady, but he is also Mr. Mediocrity. McDonald, on the other hand, has shown some growth during college to get where he is. That suggests to me that he will continue to do so in the NPL. He's got some momentum coming into the pros.

In Closing, We did not choose the "supposed" best LBs in this draft as we did not want to turn this into an essay on who was the best overall pick. But we wanted to show you that it takes quite a bit of prep work to find the best match for your system. No system is perfect, and it is up to you the coach to find the system that best suits you. Decide what are the most important ratings for you at a given position, and work from there. You have many scouting tools at your disposal, The Scouts themselves, the Yearly statistics, Mel's reports, the mock draft, your invites, and lastly the Player Stats Page. This page will give you the career totals for every player in the draft pool, this file may seem daunting at first, but most Internet browsers have a search feature, on IE, hit edit, find on this page, and type in the players name and he'll be found.

Good luck on your scouting and the upcoming seasons.

Jeff and Alvin