Mel's Top players Report

When the scouts get all starry-eyed over the rookies things get pretty tough for Mel. Sure, there are lots of players who look like difference-makers, but are they really? Perhaps this draft is all wheat, or perhaps it's going to be harder than usual to sort out the chaff.

QUARTERBACKS This is a strong group of quarterbacks, with seven players projecting into the first two rounds on raw scores alone. But this class doesn't have production on the whole that matches scout perceptions.
QB George Nixon Passing: 79.5 rating, 1,213-2,245, 54.0%, 15,218 yds, 76 lg 68 TDs, 32 ints, 254 sacks-1,812 yds Rushing: 191 carries, -237 yards, 30 longest, 3 TD Two point converts: 1 Fumbles: 30 Fumble recoveries: 5 Tackles: 5 Pros: Passed for more than 15,000 yards, tops among the QBs making the all-time list. Maintained a TD-INT ratio that was better than 2-1. Elite scouting evaluations in nearly every regard. NPLCAA Hall of Fame member. Cons: 6.8 yard average is not in the upper echelon. 54% completion ratio is not elite, especially considering that he wasn't completing deep passes. Could be a better student of the game. Conclusion: Here's your fourth-rated overall prospect. Nixon has a couple questions to answer for his on-field performance, but he has loads of positives. Should go in the first half of the first round.
QB Rod Ewing Passing: 56.0 rating, 950-1,967, 48.3%, 9,731 yds, 79 lg 18 TDs, 47 ints, 400 sacks-2,709 yds Rushing: 246 carries, -241 yards, 29 longest Fumbles: 37 Fumble recoveries: 4 Tackles: 7 Pros: The scouts say he has all the tools. Where he's weak the weakness is relative. There's no way in which he truly scores poorly. Cons: An interception machine. Few NPLCAA QBs have been sacked more. Completed less than 50% of his passes. Scouting evaluations don't match on field performance. Was it the system? Anemic 4.9 yard average. 37 fumbles Conclusion: By scout evaluations alone, Ewing looks like a franchise player. He's rated 6th best of all players in the draft. However, his on-field performance makes him a prospect likely to go lower than projected.
QB Colt Brennan Passing: 85.5 rating, 491-854, 57.5%, 7,006 yds, 75 lg 21 TDs, 14 ints, 134 sacks-862 yds Rushing: 78 carries, -58 yards, 21 longest Fumbles: 16 Fumble recoveries: 4 Pros: 8.2 yard average is tops among QBs on the all-time list. Great athleticism and adherence to the system. Though he's passing a lot, he doesn't take an inordinate number of sacks. Cons: 3-2 TD-INT ratio is on the positive side of the ledger, but not outstanding. Not a top student of the game. Could have better conditioning. Conclusion: This underclassman came close to greatness in just three seasons, finishing fourth overall in career QB rating. Brennan projects as an early second rounder, but he could easily go sooner. In many ways he's the prototype passer for the Aliens. Could he be the best quarterback in the draft? His on-field performance suggests so.
QB Christopher Carroll Passing: 55.1 rating, 984-2,107, 46.7%, 10,275 yds, 80 lg 18 TDs, 46 ints, 396 sacks-2,731 yds Rushing: 130 carries, -52 yards, 26 longest Receiving: 2 catches, -3 yards, -1 longest Fumbles: 41 Fumble recoveries: 5 Tackles: 6 Pros: Another player with very fine physical tools, though he has a few more areas that are less than elite than the players above him. Cons: Completed only 46.7% of his passes, and threw 18 TDs to his 46 picks. A little slow on his release. Took nearly as many sacks as Ewing, and that's a very bad thing. As with Ewing, the weaknesses reported by scouts are only weaknesses in a relative sense. Anemic 4.9 yard average. 41 fumbles Conclusion: Carroll projects right alongside Brennan, but the Colt almost certainly has more upside. Carroll probably shouldn't slip out of the second, but he's not likely to be drafted as highly as rated here.
QB Trevor Wilkerson Passing: 56.5 rating, 995-2,049, 48.6%, 10,534 yds, 84 lg 13 TDs, 47 ints, 393 sacks-2,576 yds Rushing: 197 carries, -250 yards, 15 longest Fumbles: 52 Fumble recoveries: 4 Tackles: 6 Pros: Despite more non-elite characteristics, Wilkerson still grades out well in nearly every area. Cons: A bit slow on release. Not as athletic as the top-ranked quarterbacks. 13 TDs to 47 INTs. Took nearly as many sacks as Carroll and Ewing. Sub-50% completion rate and a meager 5.1 yard average doesn't look that bad next to Ewing and carroll. 52 fumbles, sixth-most all-time. Conclusion: Strong scout evaluations once again don't align with on-field performance. Scouts say middle second round. Mel says no sooner than the third unless you had him in to invites and know something Mel doesn't.
Dark horse pick: Jahine Beard, who was stuck behind second-ranked Rod Ewing on Arizona State's bench. Ryan Robinson worked out for Bangor, and he was not an NPLCAA starter.

Halfbacks As often the case at HB, the top favorites of the scouts are not necessarily the guys who racked up the best stats. Scheme matters in NPLCAA, but it means you should probably invite one or more backs if you intend to draft one early
HB Ira Clark Rushing: 594 carries, 1,586 yards, 36 longest, 7 TD Receiving: 57 catches, 546 yards, 62 longest, 5 TD Two point converts: 1 Fumbles: 9 Fumble recoveries: 3 Tackles: 8 Pros: Rarely fumbles. The scouts say he's got a complete set of elite physical and mental tools. Cons: So why aren't his numbers better? He doesn't have that many touchdowns, and he never broke a really long run. Was this scheme? Not a real pounder. Conclusion: Clark projects as a middle first rounder, but you'd do well to invite him before you draft him.
HB Ray Farmer Passing: 52.1 rating, 3-7, 42.9%, 24 yds, 10 lg Rushing: 743 carries, 2,034 yards, 34 longest, 9 TD Receiving: 127 catches, 1,091 yards, 44 longest, 3 TD Fumbles: 17 Fumble recoveries: 6 Tackles: 17 Pros: Got plenty of work in the ground and passing games. Elite speed, quickness and understanding of the game. Cons: Not elite in terms of hitting the hole or catching the ball. Not a true power back. Unimpressive longs and averages don't really give the impression of a game breaker. Conclusion: Farmer projects as a late first rounder As with Clark you may want to be sure that the scouts, not the stats, tell the true tale.
HB Jay Smith Rushing: 1,043 carries, 3,467 yards, 59 longest, 21 TD Receiving: 27 catches, 233 yards, 18 longest, 1 TD Two point converts: 1 KO Returns: 2 returns, 2 yards, 2 longest Fumbles: 22 Fumble recoveries: 7 Tackles: 13 Pros: Smith is a workhorse back who was highly productive, racking up the most yards of the top backs albeit with the most carries. He really did pretty much everything you could ask a back to do. Cons: Not really an elite athlete, though his pass-catching ability is the only area where he verges on average. Scored a lot, but took a lot of carries to do it. Conclusion: Smith projects to the late first or early second round. If a team is convinced that he's the one, he could easily go in the middle of the first round.
HB Bernard Jones Rushing: 694 carries, 2,891 yards, 55 longest, 19 TD Receiving: 121 catches, 1,288 yards, 64 longest, 7 TD KO Returns: 3 returns, 53 yards, 21 longest Fumbles: 13 Fumble recoveries: 11 Tackles: 46 Pros: Very productive back who had no trouble finding the end zone whether running or catching the ball. Top speed and fine mental game. Cons: Not as quick as real feature backs tend to be. Could be better conditioned. Strong but not elite in terms of his ability to hit the hole or catch the ball. Conclusion: Jones is a step down from the top two backs in the scouts' eyes, but he was extremely productive in both the running and passing game. Slot him into the late second or early third round unless you know something from invites.
HB Dave Martin Rushing: 363 carries, 1,619 yards, 40 longest, 6 TD Receiving: 32 catches, 234 yards, 27 longest, 1 TD Two point converts: 1 KO Returns: 18 returns, 324 yards, 42 longest Fumbles: 11 Tackles: 57 Pros: Great speed and discipline.Well above average in most respects. Cons: A good athlete, but not really elite across the board. Conclusion: Early to middle third round is about right for Martin.
Dark horse pick: Tyrone Redman, who averaged 4.7 yards a carry over the course of his career, good for 60th in total yards all time. Those numbers compare well with Barret Luberti and Eugene Didier.

Fullbacks This season we have a solid crop of fullbacks. There aren't any obvious superstars here, but there are a couple first round prospects and others who could easily grow into solid contributors.
FB Tarrick Mackey Rushing: 178 carries, 657 yards, 27 longest, 1 TD Receiving: 112 catches, 692 yards, 35 longest, 1 TD Fumbles: 6 Fumble recoveries: 4 Tackles: 19 Pros: Strong, speedy back who saw plenty of college action. Cons: Lacks elite athleticism, though he's still well above-average across the board. Conclusion: Mackey warrants consideration in the middle of or later in the first round.
FB Cornelius Taylor Passing: 100.0 rating, 1-1, *.%, 8 yd, 8 lg Rushing: 199 carries, 595 yards, 37 longest, 3 TD Receiving: 68 catches, 471 yards, 17 longest, 1 TD Fumbles: 5 Fumble recoveries: 4 Tackles: 16 Pros: Great physical prospect, elite in nearly every meaningful characteristic. Saw plenty of college action, though he didn't have a great average. Let's assume he was called on to get the tough yards. Cons: It's all about the discipline. With even slightly better discipline, he'd rank above Mackey. Could be a bit stronger, but that's splitting hairs. Conclusion: Late first to early second round prospect, who may be a better across-the-board player than Mackey.
FB Jason Turner Rushing: 258 carries, 765 yards, 19 longest, 11 TD Receiving: 113 catches, 1,184 yards, 40 longest, 7 TD Two point converts: 2 Fumbles: 5 Tackles: 25 Pros: College scoring machine, productive both in the running and pasing games. Got the most college work of the top FB prospects. Not a fumbler. Strong mental game. Cons: Not a real thumper. A good athlete, but not elite. Conclusion: Turner projects into the middle of the second round, though I could see him going lower depending on how many teams are in the market for fullbacks.
FB Teddy Williams Rushing: 34 carries, 125 yards, 16 longest, 2 TD Receiving: 45 catches, 293 yards, 40 longest, 3 TD Two point converts: 2 KO Returns: 4 returns, 16 yards, 6 longest Fumbles: 3 Fumble recoveries: 4 Tackles: 23 Pros: Somewhat above average in every respect. Close to elite speed. Well-conditioned athlete. Cons: Appears that most of his action took place on special teams. Not a great blocking back. Conclusion: NPLCAA career backup is a crapshoot for the NPL. Williams projects to the middle of the third round, but I doubt he'll go that early.
FB Nathaniel Durant Passing: 95.8 rating, 1-1, *.%, 7 yd, 7 lg Rushing: 191 carries, 424 yards, 49 longest, 2 TD Receiving: 83 catches, 629 yards, 26 longest, 1 TD Two point converts: 1 Fumbles: 1 Fumble recoveries: 5 Tackles: 19 Pros: He can fly and he knows how to hit the hole. Productive college career. Definitely not a fumbler. Cons: Simply not a blocking back. Not the smartest or most disciplined guy. Conclusion: Fourth-round prospect who could go before Williams on sheer athletic ability.
Dark horse pick: Ed Lawyer, a fast and powerful back who lacks athleticism and football smarts.

Wide Receivers The scouts weren't wowed by the speed of any of these players, but there are plenty of solid-looking prospects, including five who could be picked in the first two rounds.
WR Lionel Moore Receiving: 288 catches, 4,533 yards, 79 longest, 16 TD Punt Returns: 9 returns, 92 yards, 41 longest KO Returns: 2 returns, 35 yards, 18 longest Fumbles: 1 Tackles: 7 Pros: Moore rates fifth all-time in receiving yards, and he did it at a school that doesn't generally have a lot of star receivers. This suggests that he's a quality player. He is above average bordering on elite in all respects. There's little question that he can get open. Strong long reception and an average that compares well with the top five all time. Cons: Lacks truly elite speed and explosiveness. Could be conditioned a bit better. Didn't catch all that many touchdown passes despite having plenty of chances. Conclusion: Moore projects near the middle of the first round, and given the history of WRs, he will likely be off the board prior to that point.
WR Robert Lewis Receiving: 318 catches, 4,518 yards, 69 longest, 16 TD Two point converts: 1 Punt Returns: 6 returns, 31 yards, 8 longest, 1 fair catch KO Returns: 2 returns, 40 yards, 40 longest Tackles: 7 Pros: Lewis is nearly as productive as Moore, though it took Lewis a few more catches to get a few less yards (he still ranks 7th all-time). Never fumbled in NPLCAA. Great quickness. Top conditioning and mental game. Cons: Lacks true top-end speed, and it shows in his numbers. Could have better hands. Needs to be really open to get the catch. Conclusion: Lewis projects as a late first rounder, which seems about right.
WR Calvin Phillips Receiving: 305 catches, 4,441 yards, 78 longest, 18 TD Two point converts: 1 Punt Returns: 5 returns, 74 yards, 57 longest, 1 TD, 1 fair catch KO Returns: 3 returns, 49 yards, 18 longest Fumble recoveries: 1 Tackles: 10 Pros: Ranks 9th all-time in receiving yardage. Scored the most TDs of any of the top receivers this year. Great mental game, and near-elite athleticism, hands and conditioning. Cons: Looked slow in workouts for the scouts. Didn't have a great per-catch average in college, though he had a good long reception. Conclusion: Phillips looks like an early second round possession guy. That strikes me as a bit early for this player, but teams looking for receiving help may not think so.
WR Calvin Phillips Receiving: 305 catches, 4,441 yards, 78 longest, 18 TD Two point converts: 1 Punt Returns: 5 returns, 74 yards, 57 longest, 1 TD, 1 fair catch KO Returns: 3 returns, 49 yards, 18 longest Fumble recoveries: 1 Tackles: 10 Pros: Ranks 9th all-time in receiving yardage. Scored the most TDs of any of the top receivers this year. Great mental game, and near-elite athleticism, hands and conditioning. Cons: Looked slow in workouts for the scouts. Didn't have a great per-catch average in college, though he had a good long reception. Conclusion: Phillips looks like an early second round possession guy. That strikes me as a bit early for this player, but teams looking for receiving help may not think so.
WR Joe Taylor Receiving: 216 catches, 2,878 yards, 42 longest, 9 TD KO Returns: 21.2 avg, 60 returns, 1,273 yards, 46 longest Fumble recoveries: 1 Tackles: 53 Pros: Fast, athletic receiver who really knows how to get open. Runs fine patterns and is a good student of the game. Cons: Not a great blocker, but he's a WR, so that's only a small negative. Could be conditioned better, though he's better than average. Conclusion: Taylor was Moore's compliment at North Carolina, but he was nowhere near as productive. Still, Taylor could go before Lee in the middle or late second round.
Dark horse pick: Dan Raybon, who lacks top quickness, but has enough tools to have a productive (to the tune of 17th on the all-time list) career at pass-happy Purdue.

Tight End There are no sure superstar tight ends in this year's crop, though top prospect Donovan Fryzel could go in the first round.
TE Donovan Fryzel Receiving: 114 catches, 843 yards, 22 longest, 2 TD Two point converts: 4 Fumble recoveries: 3 Tackles: 4 Pros: Great athlete and fine receiver. Sound blocker in top condition. Cons: Sometimes gets a little sloppy in his route running. Didn't find the end zone often. Conclusion: Fryzel has the tools to be productive starting in the pros. Take him late in the first or early in the second.
TE Jason Carlor Receiving: 112 catches, 796 yards, 22 longest, 7 TD Fumbles: 1 Fumble recoveries: 1 Tackles: 3 Pros: Seven touchdowns is quite good for a TE. Carlor is powerful and athletic. He can play all day, and he's well above average in the film room. Cons: Not the fastest of tight ends, and his hands are suspect. However, he's above average across the board. Conclusion: Half man, half bulldozer, Carlor is the blocking TE of the draft, if that's what you need. Take him early in the second.
TE Lucas Byrd Receiving: 281 catches, 2,576 yards, 45 longest, 3 TD Fumbles: 1 Fumble recoveries: 2 Tackles: 14 Pros: Caught a ton of passes in college. Knows how to get open and runs good routes. Top conditioning. Cons: With all those catches where are the scores? Lacks top speed and explosiveness. Only an average blocker. Hands are a bit suspect despite all the catches. Conclusion: Byrd projects in the third round and is nobody's ideal. However, he looks good enough to be a player.
TE Kerry Fordyce Receiving: 41 catches, 353 yards, 48 longest Tackles: 25 Pros: Great speed and some production in college. Can get open and block. Very well-conditioned. Runs pretty sound routes. Cons: Not a student of the game and lacks explosiveness. Conclusion: Fordyce looks like he could settle in as a pretty sound second option at TE for the team that drafts him. He should go early in the fourth round.
TE Jimmy Morgan Tackles: 8 Pros: The scouts see him as an explosive receiver with soft hands and fine conditioning. Cons: None of that meant he got on the field in college. May have trouble getting open, and he's no one's blocking TE. Doesn't run the best routes. Conclusion: The fifth round is plenty soon enough.
Dark horse pick: Ethan Lewis, a true receiving TE who had the best season last year of all NPLCAA TEs taken in terms of receiving alone. Don't expect him to be a great blocker.

Centers This is a weak crop of centers. While most other positions are loaded with star power, the top center, Ramando Soares, grades to the middle of the third round if the scouts are to be believed.
C Ramondo Soares Pros: Good power and a reliable snapper. Quick enough to engage defensive linemen and has some pass blocking ability. Cons: Will draw some penalties. Not elite across the board, but well above average in most respects. Conclusion: Soares, as mentioned above, grades out as a third rounder, but I could see him going in the second to a team looking for a future starting center.
C Roell Brzezinski Pros: Nice combination of power and quickness. Fast for a center with above-average pass blocking skills. Cons: Poor mental game will have him making mistakes and drawing penalties. Conclusion: Brzezinski projects to a fourth round pick, but he has room.
C Ryan Connor Pros: Fast and more than strong enough, with above-average pass blocking skills. Cons: A bit slow off the blocks, which in a center may translate to him blocking the air more often than not. How did he stay in college? His conditioning could be better, though it's above average. Conclusion: Connor looks like a sound backup prospect, though he may never be what you want in a starter. Sixth round material.
C Steve Murray Pros: Fast enough and more than strong enough. Good enough in the run and pass games. Cons: Lacks explosion after the snap. Could be a mistake-prone blocker, though he'll generally try to stick with the play. Could be conditioned better. Conclusion: Murray should get taken in the seventh round based on his ST alone.
Dark horse pick: Roll the dice on your favorite from among the other guys as a post-draft FA.

Guards They don't come much slicker than Todd Davidson, who will compete to be the first offensive lineman taken in this year's draft. This is a deep group in which the fifth-rated player is still ranked higher than the second-rated center. Are these guys out of shape or were the scouts unduly harsh?
G Todd Davidson Pros: Davidson looks like a special lineman. He's nearly flawless. Cons: His conditioning could be a very big negative if he's a bit worse than the scouts think. It's not his best point. Conclusion: Equally suited for running and passing Davidson is a first-round type. just watch that EN to make sure it doesn't render him a career backup. If he can start he'll be a great one who can play anywhere on the line.
G Kenyun Hannum Pros: Hannum is a very fine athlete who plays within the scheme and rarely makes mistakes. He's more than powerful enough and while he's fast, he isn't so fast that he's likely to get out of position. Cons: Below average conditioning is a very significant question mark. Conclusion: Hannum is a solid second round player who could be a key backup or quality starter depending on his conditioning.
G Brandon Stadnik Pros: A fast, explosive guard who should excel in run blocking. Above-average conditioning. Cons: Not especially mistake prone, but he can freelance at times. Not a top pass blocker, though not a liability. Conclusion: Stadnik projects to the middle of the third round, but could have more value to a run-first/quick passing team.
G Kevin O Pros: Fast, athletic and powerful. A student of the game. Cons: Very poor conditioning. Prone to freelancing. Conclusion: How many plays a game can he give you? O is a versatile lineman who could be a key backup for both running and passing teams. With his conditioning, though, he might never be a starter. Look at him in the third.
G Joel Gideon Pros: Fast, powerful and intelligent, Gideon is an elite natural athlete who appears to have what it takes to play any spot on the line. Cons: Prone to freelancing and not in the best of condition. Have we heard this one before? Conclusion: Another physical dynamo with conditioning and discipline problems. Take him in the third.
Dark horse pick: Colin Graffis, who needs to do a lot of endurance work.

Tackles This top-heavy group of tackles is highlighted by Donovan Furrer, a powerhouse first round candidate who looks to be up there with the best rookie tackles of recent years.
T Donovan Furrer Pros: Speed, explosiveness and power are at hall of fame levels. Great conditioning and plays within the scheme. Cons: He has no real weaknesses, but he could be a bit (ONLY a bit) better in pass blocking. Less than elite conditioning and football smarts. Conclusion: Furrer may be my favorite lineman in this draft. He has all the skills, and the scouts have no doubts about his conditioning. Take him in the top half of the first.
T Karl Campbell Pros: Very fast and plenty quick and strong enough. Above average in pass blocking (though not as good as Furrer, even though I listed pass blocking as a slight weakness for Furrer). Makes few mistakes and does not freelance. Cons: Campbell has just average conditioning. Not elite like Furrer, though still well above average in just about every respect. Conclusion: Campbell is a late second round prospect. He should be a starter unless his conditioning is worse than the scouts realized.
T Josh Willis Pros: A really fine athlete who has elite power and footspeed. Above-average pass blocker. Sticks with his assignment. Cons: Could do some more work in the film room and improve his conditioning. Conclusion: Willis is a late second or early third round prospect who has enough elite traits that he should go sooner rather than later.
T Kahlil Hernandez Pros: Strong and fairly well conditioned. Student of the game who should generally not make to many mistakes. Cons: Lacks explosiveness and top footspeed. Conclusion: Hernandez is a third- or fourt-round prospect who may not be special but who looks to have enough skill to stick.
T Lance Walker Pros: Fine athlete with good speed, quickness and power. Cons: Subpar conditioning and a questionable mental game make Walker an iffy prospect for extended playing time. Poor hands may result in him giving up a few extra sacks. He won't play center for sure. Conclusion: Walker grades out as a sixth-round prospect. If he can get into better condition you might have something.
Dark horse pick: Rondell Hart, a solid physical specimin who will have to upgrade his conditioning and his mental game to get much playing time in NPL.

Mel's Top players Report

Tackles